[15200477 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society] Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions.pdf (11.65 MB)
Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-10, 02:55 authored by Christopher J White, Daniela I V Domeisen, Nachiketa Acharya, Elijah A Adefisan, Michael L Anderson, Stella Aura, Ahmed A Balogun, Douglas Bertram, Sonia Bluhm, David J Brayshaw, Jethro Browell, Dominik Büeler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Xandre Chourio, Martin ToddMartin Todd, othersThe subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive timescale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this timescale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a ‘knowledge-value’ gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socio-economic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development – demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors – this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value and co-generation of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting timescale.
History
Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyISSN
0003-0007Publisher
American Meteorological SocietyExternal DOI
Issue
6Volume
106Page range
1-57Department affiliated with
- Geography Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2022-03-18First Open Access (FOA) Date
2022-12-14First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2022-03-18Usage metrics
Categories
No categories selectedKeywords
Licence
Exports
RefWorks
BibTeX
Ref. manager
Endnote
DataCite
NLM
DC