how-can-risk-of-covid-19-transmission-be-minimised - I Kiss.pdf (588.93 kB)
How can risk of COVID-19 transmission be minimised in domiciliary care for older people: development, parameterisation and initial results of a simple mathematical model
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-10, 02:35 authored by Istvan Kiss, Konstantin BlyussKonstantin Blyuss, Yuliya KyrychkoYuliya Kyrychko, Jo MiddletonJo Middleton, Daniel Roland, Lavinia BertiniLavinia Bertini, Leanne Bogen-Johnston, Wendy Wood, Rebecca Sharp, Julien Forder, Jackie CassellThis paper proposes and analyses a stochastic model for the spread of an infectious disease transmitted between clients and care workers in the UK domiciliary (home) care setting. Interactions between clients and care workers are modelled using specially generated networks, with network parameters reflecting realistic patterns of care needs and visit allocation. These networks are then used to simulate and SEIR-type epidemic dynamics with different numbers of infectious and recovery stages. The results indicate that with the same overall capacity provided by care workers, the minimum peak proportion of infection, and the smallest overall size of infection are achieved for the highest proportion of overlap between visit allocation, i.e. when care workers have the highest chances of being allocated a visit to the same client they have visited before. An intuitive explanation of this is that while providing the required care coverage, maximising overlap in visit allocation reduces the possibility of an infectious care worker inadvertently spreading the infection to other clients. The model is generic and can be adapted to any directly transmitted infectious disease, such as, more recently, COVID-19, provided accurate estimates of disease parameters can be obtained from real data.
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Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
Epidemiology and InfectionISSN
0950-2688Publisher
Cambridge University PressExternal DOI
Volume
150Page range
1-6Article number
a13Department affiliated with
- Primary Care and Public Health Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2022-02-10First Open Access (FOA) Date
2022-02-10First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2022-02-09Usage metrics
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