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Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya

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posted on 2023-06-10, 01:53 authored by Emmah Mwangi, Olivia TaylorOlivia Taylor, Martin ToddMartin Todd, Emma Visman, Dominic KnivetonDominic Kniveton, Mary Kilavi, William Ndegwa, George Otieno, Shamton Waruru, John Mwangi, Maurine Ambani, Halima Abdillahi, David MacLeod, Pedram RowhaniPedram Rowhani, Richard Graham, Andrew Colman
Drought and food security crises heighten risks to lives and livelihoods in East Africa. In recent years, a shift towards acting in advance of such events has gained momentum, notably among the humanitarian and development community. This shift is premised on tools that link climate forecasts with pre-agreed actions and funding, known as Forecast-based Action (FbA), or anticipatory action more widely. While FbA approaches have been developed by a number of humanitarian agencies, the key to scaling-up is mainstreaming these approaches into national risk management systems. This paper addresses this gap in the context of drought risk management in Kenya. We analyse Kenya's current drought management system to assess the potential usability of climate forecast information within the existing system, and outline steps towards improved usability of climate information. Further, we note the critical importance of enabling institutions and reliable financing to ensure that information can be consistently used to trigger early action. We discuss the implications of this for scaling-up FbA into national risk management systems.

Funding

Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action (ForPAc): Probabilistic forecasts information for defensible preparedness decision-making and action; G2043; NERC-NATURAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH COUNCIL; NE/P000673/1

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Climate and Development

ISSN

1756-5529

Publisher

Taylor and Francis

Page range

1-16

Department affiliated with

  • Geography Publications

Research groups affiliated with

  • Sussex Sustainability Research Programme Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2021-11-29

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2021-11-29

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2021-11-27

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