(Rev 4) Considering the Counterfactual.pdf (500.93 kB)
Considering the counterfactual: real wages in the first industrial revolution
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-10, 01:08 authored by Nicholas Crafts, Terence C MillsWe investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4% before 1760 but 1.5% thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Industrial Revolution the impact on real wages would have been catastrophic and that these shocks were largely responsible for very slow growth of real wages during the Industrial Revolution.
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- Published
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- Accepted version
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The Economic JournalISSN
0013-0133Publisher
Oxford University PressExternal DOI
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- Economics Publications
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- Yes
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2021-09-27First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2021-09-27Usage metrics
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