s41598-021-91247-7.pdf (2.37 MB)
Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-10, 00:48 authored by Thomas Barrett, Karen PattersonKaren Patterson, Timothy Martin James, Peter KruegerPeter KruegerAs we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation.
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Publication status
- Published
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- Published version
Journal
Scientific ReportsISSN
2045-2322Publisher
Nature ResearchExternal DOI
Issue
1Volume
11Page range
1-11Article number
a12213Event location
EnglandDepartment affiliated with
- Clinical and Experimental Medicine Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2021-08-27First Open Access (FOA) Date
2021-08-27First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2021-08-27Usage metrics
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