Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions

Barrett, Thomas J, Patterson, Karen C, James, Timothy M and Kruger, Peter (2021) Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions. Scientific Reports, 11 (1). a12213 1-11. ISSN 2045-2322

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Abstract

As we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: COVID-19, Cities, Disease Susceptibility, Humans, Models, Statistical, Pandemics
Schools and Departments: Brighton and Sussex Medical School > Clinical and Experimental Medicine
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Physics and Astronomy
SWORD Depositor: Mx Elements Account
Depositing User: Mx Elements Account
Date Deposited: 27 Aug 2021 13:56
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 14:00
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/101365

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