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Validating commonly used drought indicators in Kenya

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Version 2 2023-06-12, 09:57
Version 1 2023-06-10, 00:28
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-12, 09:57 authored by Andrew Bowell, Edward Efui Kwaku Salakpi, KISWENDSIDA HYACINTHE GUIGMA, James Muthoka, John Mwangi, Pedram RowhaniPedram Rowhani
Drought is a complex natural hazard that can occur in any climate and affect every aspect of society. To better prepare and mitigate the impacts of drought, various indicators can be applied to monitor and forecast its onset, intensity, and severity. Though widely used, little is known about the efficacy of these indicators which restricts their role in important decisions. Here, we provide the first validation of 11 commonly-used drought indicators by comparing them to pasture and browse condition data collected on the ground in Kenya. These ground-based data provide an absolute and relative assessment of the conditions, similar to some of the drought indicators. Focusing on grass and shrublands of the arid and semi-arid lands, we demonstrate there are strong relationships between ground-based pasture and browse conditions, and satellite-based drought indicators. The Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) has the best relationship, achieving a mean r2 score of 0.70 when fitted against absolute pasture condition. Similarly, the 3-month Vegetation Health Index (VHI3M) reached a mean r2 score of 0.62 when fitted against a relative pasture condition. In addition, we investigated the Kenya-wide drought onset threshold for the 3-month average Vegetation Condition Index (VCI3M; VCI3M<35), which is used by the country’s drought early warning system. Our results show large disparities in thresholds across different counties. Understanding these relationships and thresholds are integral to developing effective and efficient drought early warning systems (EWS). Our work offers evidence for the effectiveness of some of these indicators as well as practical thresholds for their use.

Funding

Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action (ForPAc): Probabilistic forecasts information for defensible preparedness decision-making and action; G2043; NERC-NATURAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH COUNCIL; NE/P000673/1

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Environmental Research Letters

ISSN

1748-9326

Publisher

IOP Publishing

Issue

8

Volume

16

Page range

1-14

Article number

a084066

Department affiliated with

  • Geography Publications

Research groups affiliated with

  • Sussex Sustainability Research Programme Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2021-07-27

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2021-07-27

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2021-07-26

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