Backhausz2022_Article_TheImpactOfSpatialAndSocialStr.pdf (2.17 MB)
The impact of spatial and social structure on an SIR epidemic on a weighted multilayer network
Version 2 2023-06-12, 09:56
Version 1 2023-06-10, 00:22
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-12, 09:56 authored by Ágnes Backhausz, Istvan Kiss, Péter L SimonA key factor in the transmission of infectious diseases is the structure of disease transmitting contacts. In the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic and with some data based on the Hungarian population we develop a theoretical epidemic model (susceptible-infected-removed, SIR) on a multilayer network. The layers include the Hungarian household structure, with population divided into children, adults and elderly, as well as schools and workplaces, some spatial embedding and community transmission due to sharing communal spaces, service and public spaces. We investigate the sensitivity of the model (via the time evolution and final size of the epidemic) to the different contact layers and we map out the relation between peak prevalence and final epidemic size. When compared to the classic compartmental model and for the same final epidemic size, we find that epidemics on multilayer network lead to higher peak prevalence meaning that the risk of overwhelming the health care system is higher. Based on our model we found that keeping cliques/bubbles in school as isolated as possible has a major effect while closing workplaces had a mild effect as long as workplaces are of relatively small size.
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Periodica Mathematica HungaricaISSN
0031-5303Publisher
SpringerExternal DOI
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- Mathematics Publications
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2021-07-16First Open Access (FOA) Date
2022-01-10First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2021-07-15Usage metrics
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