Many methodologies exist for dividing a population into those who are classified as eligible for social transfers and those who are ineligible. Popular targeting mechanisms include means testing, proxy means tests, categorical, geographic, community-based, and self-selection. This paper reviews empirical evidence from a range of social protection programmes on the accuracy of these mechanisms, in terms of minimising four targeting errors: inclusion and exclusion, by eligibility and by poverty. This paper also reviews available evidence on the various costs associated with targeting, not only administrative but also private, social, psycho-social, incentive-based and political costs. Comparisons are difficult, but all mechanisms generate targeting errors and costs. Given the inevitability of trade-offs, there is no ‘best’ mechanism for targeting social transfers. The key determinant of relative accuracy and cost-effectiveness in each case is how well the targeting mechanism is designed and implemented.

Innovation is about more than technological invention. It involves change of many kinds: cultural, organisational and behavioural as well as technological. So, in a world crying out for social justice and ecological care, innovation holds enormous progressive potential. Yet there are no guarantees that any particular realised innovation will necessarily be positive. Indeed, powerful forces ‘close down’ innovation in the directions favoured by the most privileged interests. So harnessing the positive transformative potential for innovation in any given area, is not about optimizing some single self-evidently progressive trajectory in a ‘race to the future’. Instead, it is about collaboratively exploring diverse and uncertain pathways – in ways that deliberately balance the spurious effects of incumbent power. In other words, what is needed is a more realistic, rational and vibrant ‘innovation democracy’.

For many people based in the United Kingdom, as we are, memories of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), commonly known as mad cow disease, remain vivid. We recall, in particular, that during the decade after the identification of the disease in 1986, the British government and representatives of the cattle industry asserted that BSE was, in effect, substantially equivalent to the familiar disease of sheep and goats called scrapie, which was then widely assumed to be harmless to humans. Although some control measures were taken, BSE infectivity was allowed to remain in our food supply. And as we tragically learned, BSE could be transmitted to humans, in a brain-wasting form called variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. According to government statistics, 177 Britons died of this lingering disease through June 2014.

2015 is a time for opportunity. The coming years will witness the development of three inter-related international policy frameworks around sustainable development, climate change and disasters. An international policy window for climate change and development is opening up in 2015, with the coincidence of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP 21 meeting to create a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, the 3rd World Disaster Risk Reduction Conference on the Post-Hyogo Framework for Action, and the agreement of a new set of Sustainable Development Goals with associated financing mechanisms. This Policy Paper makes a case to international policy makers, national government representatives, UN agencies and other development actors for an integrative approach across these three inter-related international processes centred on strengthening the lives and livelihoods of all people across the world. We present recommendations that underpin an approach to tackling climate change impacts that highlights the critical importance in a rapidly changing world of livelihood resilience for all; and emphasizing the need for livelihood protection especially for the world’s most vulnerable.

This thesis seeks to contribute to the knowledge of the economics of education in post-conflict, by proposing an economic analysis of such a setting as a hybrid socio-economic environment, where conflict, despite having ended, has still an impact. It uses an applied economics approach to analyse demand for primary and secondary education and one of the main economic drivers of their demand, returns to education. The focus of study is the post-conflict country of Timor-Leste.

In this analysis it proposes and tests economic mechanisms through which conflict may have impacted the returns to education observed in post-conflict Timor-Leste, finding evidence of two significant channels: reduction of productivity and scarcity of qualified human resources. In support of this analysis, it builds a dataset with a novel indicator of political control during conflict that applies in the empirical analysis of returns to education.

In the next chapter it seeks to establish evidence of medium-run impacts of conflict on the demand for primary education in Timor-Leste, proposing and testing an empirical methodology to do so.

Finally, it proposes and analyses an empirical model of the demand for secondary education in Timor-Leste that integrates the hypothesis of medium-run impacts of conflict.

In the process it finds evidence suggesting that, while some of the channels negatively impacted by conflict significantly affect demand for education, a medium-run positive effect might exist, particularly in the form of higher preferences for secondary education among those that experienced more violence during the conflict. Less robust findings of equally positive medium-run effects of conflict are found in the demand for primary education.

Background

This paper explores the framings of trypanosomiasis, a widespread and potentially fatal zoonotic disease transmitted by tsetse flies (Glossina species) affecting both humans and livestock. This is a country case study focusing on the political economy of knowledge in Zambia. It is a pertinent time to examine this issue as human population growth and other factors have led to migration into tsetse-inhabited areas with little historical influence from livestock. Disease transmission in new human-wildlife interfaces such as these is a greater risk, and opinions on the best way to manage this are deeply divided.

Methods

A qualitative case study method was used to examine the narratives on trypanosomiasis in the Zambian policy context through a series of key informant interviews. Interviewees included key actors from international organisations, research organisations and local activists from a variety of perspectives acknowledging the need to explore the relationships between the human, animal and environmental sectors.

Principal Findings

Diverse framings are held by key actors looking from, variously, the perspectives of wildlife and environmental protection, agricultural development, poverty alleviation, and veterinary and public health. From these viewpoints, four narratives about trypanosomiasis policy were identified, focused around four different beliefs: that trypanosomiasis is protecting the environment, is causing poverty, is not a major problem, and finally, that it is a Zambian rather than international issue to contend with. Within these narratives there are also conflicting views on the best control methods to use and different reasoning behind the pathways of response. These are based on apparently incompatible priorities of people, land, animals, the economy and the environment. The extent to which a One Health approach has been embraced and the potential usefulness of this as a way of reconciling the aims of these framings and narratives is considered throughout the paper.

Conclusions/Significance

While there has historically been a lack of One Health working in this context, the complex, interacting factors that impact the disease show the need for cross-sector, interdisciplinary decision making to stop rival narratives leading to competing actions. Additional recommendations include implementing: surveillance to assess under-reporting of disease and consequential under-estimation of disease risk; evidence-based decision making; increased and structurally managed funding across countries; and focus on interactions between disease drivers, disease incidence at the community level, and poverty and equity impacts.

This thesis examines the linkages between social protection and resilience to climate
change among poor rural households. To date there is a very limited understanding of
the potential role of social protection programmes in contributing to an increase in
resilience of the rural poor with respect to climate change. An improved understanding
of these links can help to build the knowledge base that is needed to help the poorest
members of the society to adapt to the impacts of climate change. This gap in
understanding is addressed in this thesis through a case study of the conditional cash
transfer programme Oportunidades in two rural communities in Yucatan, Mexico, a
region highly exposed to hurricanes and droughts. Qualitative and quantitative data
were collected by means of household surveys, life-history interviews, key informant
interviews, group discussions and participant observation.

A social protection-resilience analytical framework was developed in order to guide the
data collection and analysis. This framework is informed by a dynamic understanding of
resilience, which integrates two resilience dimensions: the absorptive capacity (the
ability to resist and recover from a shock) and the adaptive capacity (the ability to adapt
to the effects of a shock). This framework is based on the proposition that social
protection reduces vulnerability and, by doing so, this can also help to increase poor
households resilience to climate change.

The thesis found that the main role of Oportunidades is to provide a regular and
predictable safety net that protects households from short-term risk, thus increasing
households’ absorptive capacity. The impact on the adaptive capacity of households is
indirect and differentiated according to their respective poverty profiles. Furthermore,
the research shows that certain features of the theory of change of Oportunidades, and
its design, reduce the potential impact of the programme, creating trade-offs between
the different resilience dimensions. This is the case because resilience to climate change
and social protection literatures are derived from distinctive approaches, which frame
vulnerability differently. The thesis concludes by making a case for social protection to
be complemented by other interventions in a systemic approach that should explicitly
consider climate change, in order to increase resilience and achieve sustainable poverty
reduction.

This dissertation presents the results of an interdisciplinary environmental study that focuses on the formation of environmental discourse at the grassroots level of society. Case studies on the ‘Coal Capitals’ in Guizhou of China and Jharkhand of India were conducted in order to examine the question: why do people appear to react in different ways when encountering environmental problems, such as those caused by mining? This thesis investigates how the environment – and the participation space for discussing it – has been socio-culturally, historically and politically defined in the two countries. It is one of the few initiatives to have assessed environmental development issues based on comparative literature reviews and empirical fieldwork in coal villages in China and India. It has critically examined the literature related to the two locations studied by encompassing environmental governance, political discourses and historical studies about environmental development, media productions and daily life conversations about the environment.

By examining the representations of environmentalism in the Chinese and Indian cases, this study deals with different dynamics of discourse construction in the two societies – including the power of the state, the influences of media and social elites, and the emergence of grassroots movements. The investigation of the interactions between these dynamics enhances our understanding of, on the one hand, the social settings of the two Coal Capitals in the two countries, and, on the other hand, the relationship between nature and the people, especially those with limited social and economic resources. By bringing in the voices of the marginalised social groups, this thesis adds to a growing body of research on the diversity of environmentalism within developing countries. In particular, the analysis helps explain how popular environmentalism and the concept of environmental participation in India and China have become recognised differently, in the discussions created by researchers and media commentators in conjunction with actors with power in the state machinery.

Given the global food price spike experienced in 2007/8, the core question of this research is, ‘what was the impact of the rising food prices on household welfare in Zambia’? Taking an empirical approach and using micro-economic methods, four welfare outcomes are assessed: consumption, equality of income distribution, poverty and nutrition. The 2006 and 2010 cross-section household surveys - Living Conditions Monitoring Surveys (LCMS) - are primarily used to answer the question. The thesis first assesses the changes in consumption patterns across time, geographical locations and quintiles. The short-term distribution of income from the rise in prices is then analysed using non-parametric methods to show the likely winners and losers from the price spike and the subsequent impact on poverty. These results are supplemented by a supply response as an attempt to understand longer-term poverty effects. The final empirical exercise focuses on nutrition outcomes. The thesis confirms the hypothesis that on average, urban households may suffer a welfare loss but rural households may gain. In the case of maize grain, the results suggest that the highest gain may accrue to rural households clustered around the poverty line. Furthermore, the findings suggest that, while overall poverty may increase in the short-run, the long-run impacts of rising food prices (once supply response are accounted for) may lead to a marginal decline in poverty. Finally, we observe that the slight increase in income, from selling maize, among some rural households may not necessarily lead to an improvement in nutrition outcomes. In particular, while rural households exhibit a small net rise in income from an increase in maize prices, the impact on stunting levels among children below five years appears to be regressive in both urban and rural areas. The overall results of this research strengthen the case for contextual impact analysis of covariate shocks and also highlight the policy challenges arising from such conflicting results.

This thesis is a theoretically framed and historically informed political analysis of ethnicity in the Bamyan Valley, Afghanistan. Existing literature o ethnicity in Afghanistan is conceptually fragmented and lacks sufficient empirical analysis. To address this, I draw on theoretical literature, the Afghan ethnicity literature, and twelve months of fieldwork (2010-2012) to present a coherent analysis of the emergence and working of ethnicity, and also a much-needed empirical account of ethnicity in the Bamyan Valley.

I view ethnicity as relational, interactional and context-dependent. Moreover, to accomodate the intersectional and punctuated nature of identity I perceive ethnicity as operating through ethnic categories. I also adopt a constructionist approach to ethnicity acknowledging that it is (re)-constructed by broad structural forces, the state, political elites and ordinary people. Additionally, I view ethnicity as (re)-constructed through "everyday ethnicity". In this regard, I take ethnicity to be experienced in commonplace social situations in Bamyan Valley. Ethnicity is embodied, performed, expressed in interpersonal interactions; and variably emphasised in different institutional settings. Methodologically, I adopt a critical realist standpoint and utilise an ethnographic method, incorporating a range of qualitative research techniques.

My empirical findings demonstrate the differential impacts of post-2001 political reconstruction and socio-economic development in the Bamyan Valley. I explain the acquisition of productive resources by Hazarahs, their improving status, and the corresponding nature of tensions between Hazarahs and Saadat and Tajiks, respectively. Two case studies demonstrate this dynamic, whilst also exemplifying the role of individuals in the (re)-construction of ethnicity. The first illustrates the increasing salience of sectarian identity between Hazarahs and Tajiks, which has emerged since recognition of the Jafari school of Islam in the 2004 Afghan Constitution. The second concerns the use of ethnicity to legitimise, contest and violently enforce unequal marriage arrangements between Saadat and Hazarhs.

There is a wide variation in central bank policy stances across developing countries:
Some central banks emphasise stability, in both prices and the financial system; some
emphasise financial deepening; and some place equal emphasis on both goals. This
thesis explores the argument that those who control the sources of finance on which
countries rely for investment shape central bank policy stances. The argument has its
roots in the theory of the structural power of capital; a theory which has remained
under-explored for developing countries. This thesis seeks to contribute to the literature
on structural power by further developing and probing the structuralist theory in the
context of developing countries, notably those dependent on aid and natural resource
rents. Combining insights from the literature on structural power and on the economic
and political correlates of aid and natural resource dependence, I explore whether and
how those who control the sources of finance on which countries rely for investment
shape central bank policy stances. To explore these questions the thesis employs a
combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. First, I use case studies from
Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda to shed light on the mechanisms through which variations
in a country’s major sources of investible funds induce changes in the stance of central
bank policy. Second, I explore the relationship between dependence on aid and on
natural resources and the stance of central bank policy econometrically, using crossnational
statistical analysis. The statistical analysis contributes to theory-building by
developing quantitative measures of key theoretical concepts and probes structuralist
theory by examining the generalisability of the findings of the case studies.
Collectively, the evidence presented in this thesis suggests that power rooted in the
control of capital helps to account for central bank policy stances. The results of my
research contribute to extending the theory of the structural power of capital to finance
in developing countries and to the debate about the costs and benefits of different
economic development strategies.

This research focuses on how water sector reforms are unfolding in the state of Maharashtra, India. In 2005, Maharashtra launched an ambitious reform programme with support from the World Bank to establish an independent water regulator and make water user associations mandatory for water delivery in the state. The establishment of the regulator, the first of its kind in the Indian water sector, invited much attention from policy makers and civil society organisations after which several Indian states followed Maharashtra’s footsteps. Celebrated for its ‘independent’ and ‘apolitical’ virtues, this model of regulation was designed to provide answers to inefficiency and political opportunism in the water sector. What gained immense traction in the regulatory discourse was the concept of entitlements and the possibility of introducing water markets for ‘efficient’ pricing and distribution of water. To date, however, this reform project has faced reversals, limitations and subversions which have been described as ‘evolution’ by pro-reformers and ‘failures’ by the resisting groups.

This thesis shows how a seemingly ‘apolitical' initiative aimed to dilute the authority of the State in the water sector is subverted to shape and reinforce its control. Though the idea of independent water regulator is increasingly getting mainstreamed into water policy discourses in India, divergent framings and rationales have made regulation a deeply contested political process. In Maharashtra, the turf war between politicians, the water resources department and the water regulator coupled with cases of corporate water grab lie at the heart of rule-making for regulation. This has made the authority of the water regulator and the meaning of regulation ambiguous and blurred. This ambiguity in turn shapes the distribution of water entitlements. In the sugarcane belt of Western Maharashtra where farmers access water from different sources, entitlements are shaped by persistent inequities in water distribution. They take on different meanings as they are subsumed into struggles over water control between the irrigation officials and the farmers on one hand, and amongst different groups of the farmers on the other. This struggle over meanings and practices across the reform process constitutes what I call “regulatory cultures” in this thesis.

Using anthropological methods to study policy processes, this work shows how water regulation is discursively shaped and becomes a deeply political practice embedded in networks of power. These networks are formed at the intersection of donors, different layers of irrigation bureaucracy, water user associations and prosperous sugarcane farmers. I argue that the architecture of the Indian State, embedded in these very networks, is central to understanding the politics and practice of water regulation in Maharashtra.