Retention in care trajectories of HIV-positive individuals participating in a universal test and treat programme in rural South Africa (ANRS 12249 TasP trial)

Objective: To study retention in care (RIC) trajectories and associated factors in patients eligible for antiretroviral treatment (ART) in a universal test-and-treat setting (TasP trial, South Africa, 2012-2016). Design: A cluster-randomized trial whereby individuals identified HIV-positive after home-based testing were invited to initiate ART immediately (intervention) or following national guidelines (control). Methods: Exiting care was defined as =3 months late for a clinic appointment, transferring elsewhere, or death. Group-Based Trajectory Modelling was performed to estimate RIC trajectories over 18 months and associated factors in 777 ART-eligible patients. Results: Four RIC trajectory groups were identified: i) group 1 “remained” in care (reference, n=554, 71.3%), ii) group 2 exited care then “returned” after (median [interquartile range]) 4 [3-9] months (n=40, 5.2%), iii) group 3 “exited care rapidly” (after 4 [4-6] months, n=98, 12.6%), iv) group 4 “exited care later” (after 11 [9-13] months, n=85, 10.9%). Group 2 patients were less likely to have initiated ART within 1 month and more likely to be male, young (<29 years), without a regular partner and to have a CD4 count >350 cells/mm3. Group 3 patients were more likely to be women without social support, newly diagnosed, young, and less likely to have initiated ART within 1 month. Group 4 patients were more likely to be newly diagnosed and aged =39 years. Conclusions: High CD4 counts at care initiation were not associated with a higher risk of exiting care. Prompt ART initiation and special support for young and newly diagnosed HIV-patients are needed to maximize RIC.