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Temperature shocks, growth and poverty thresholds: evidence from rural Tanzania
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-09, 14:23 authored by Marco Letta, Pierluigi Montalbano, Richard TolRichard TolUsing the LSMS-ISA Tanzania National Panel Survey by the World Bank, we study the relationship between rural household consumption growth and temperature shocks over the period 2008 – 2013. Temperature shocks have a negative and significant impact on household growth only if their initial consumption lies below a critical threshold. As such, temperature shocks slow income convergence among households. Agricultural yields and labour productivity are the main transmission channels. These findings support the Schelling Conjecture: economic development would allow poor farming households to cope with climate change, and closing the yield gap and modernizing agriculture is crucial for adaptation to the negative impacts of global warming.
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Publication status
- Published
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- Submitted version
Journal
World DevelopmentISSN
0305-750XPublisher
ElsevierExternal DOI
Volume
112Page range
13-32Department affiliated with
- Economics Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2018-08-07Usage metrics
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