Peak car and increasing rebound: a closer look at car travel trends in Great Britain

Stapleton, Lee, Sorrell, Steve and Schwanen, Tim (2017) Peak car and increasing rebound: a closer look at car travel trends in Great Britain. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 53. pp. 217-233. ISSN 1361-9209

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Abstract

This paper uses econometric analysis of aggregate time-series data to explore how different factors have influenced the demand for car travel in Great Britain since 1970 and how the rebound effect has changed over that time. Our results suggest that changes in income, the fuel cost of driving and the level of urbanisation largely explain travel trends over this period – with recent reductions in car travel (peak car) being driven by a combination of the rising fuel cost of driving, increased urbanisation and the economic difficulties created by the 2008 financial crisis. We find some evidence that the proportion of licensed drivers has influenced aggregate travel trends, but no evidence that growing income inequality and the diffusion of ICT technology have played a role. Our results also suggest that the rebound effect from improved fuel efficiency has averaged 26% over this period and that the magnitude of this effect has increased over time. However, methodological and data limitations constrain the level of confidence that we can have in these results.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: Peak car; Rebound effect; Fuel efficiency
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit
Depositing User: Steven Sorrell
Date Deposited: 10 Jul 2017 09:30
Last Modified: 20 Jul 2017 18:23
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/69143

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Project NameSussex Project NumberFunderFunder Ref
Research Centre on Innovation and Energy DemandG1020RCUK-RESEARCH COUNCILS UKEP/K011790/1