The devil is in the details: an investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa

Raleigh, Clionadh, Choi, Hyun Jin and Kniveton, Dominic (2015) The devil is in the details: an investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa. Global Environmental Change, 32. pp. 187-199. ISSN 0959-3780

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Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence – higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Global Studies > Geography
Depositing User: Sharon Krummel
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2017 14:33
Last Modified: 21 Jul 2017 14:04
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/66639

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