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The devil is in the details: an investigation of the relationships between conflict, food price and climate across Africa

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posted on 2023-06-09, 05:03 authored by Clionadh RaleighClionadh Raleigh, Hyun Jin Choi, Dominic KnivetonDominic Kniveton
This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence – higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Published version

Journal

Global Environmental Change

ISSN

0959-3780

Publisher

Elsevier

Volume

32

Page range

187-199

Department affiliated with

  • Geography Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2017-02-06

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2017-07-21

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2017-07-21

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