Modelling and forecasting pharmaceutical life cycles: branded versus generic

Buxton, Samantha, Khammash, Marv, Nikopoulos, Konstantinos and Stern, Philip (2012) Modelling and forecasting pharmaceutical life cycles: branded versus generic. In: The Operational Research Society OR54 Annual Conference, 4-6 September 2012, Edinburgh, UK.

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Abstract

This paper discusses modelling and forecasting pharmaceutical life cycles specifically focusing on those where sales of branded drugs decline as the prescription rate of the generic drugs increases. This is important as there are currently very few new drugs being produced; pharmaceutical companies are looking to extend the market life span of drugs already in the marketplace, and the market in the UK alone is currently worth $19843 million. Losses from pharmaceutical mismanagement can be significant and dramatic. A Bass diffusion and repeat purchase diffusion model are used to model and forecast these life cycles along with a simple naïve model, exponential smoothing and moving average models. The results show that the RPDM diffusion model is the most accurate in both modelling and forecasting branded versus generic pharmaceutical life cycles.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Business and Management
Subjects: H Social Sciences
Depositing User: Tahir Beydola
Date Deposited: 19 Sep 2016 14:29
Last Modified: 19 Sep 2016 14:29
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/63408
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