Compact pairwise models for epidemics with multiple infectious stages on degree heterogeneous and clustered networks

Sherborne, N, Blyuss, K B and Kiss, I Z (2016) Compact pairwise models for epidemics with multiple infectious stages on degree heterogeneous and clustered networks. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 407. pp. 387-400. ISSN 0022-5193

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Abstract

This paper presents a compact pairwise model that describes the spread of multi-stage epidemics on networks. The multi-stage model corresponds to a gamma-distributed infectious period which interpolates between the classical Markovian models with exponentially distributed infectious period and epidemics with a constant infectious period. We show how the compact approach leads to a system of equations whose size is independent of the range of node degrees, thus significantly reducing the complexity of the model. Network clustering is incorporated into the model to provide a more accurate representation of realistic contact networks, and the accuracy of proposed closures is analysed for different levels of clustering and number of infection stages. Our results support recent findings that standard closure techniques are likely to perform better when the infectious period is constant.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Mathematics
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Depositing User: Konstantin Blyuss
Date Deposited: 30 Aug 2016 08:20
Last Modified: 20 Jul 2017 08:23
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/63041

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