Sherborne2015_Article_DynamicsOfMulti-stageInfection.pdf (1.4 MB)
Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks
journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-15, 20:53 authored by Neil Sherborne, Konstantin BlyussKonstantin Blyuss, Istvan KissThis paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider.
History
Publication status
- Published
File Version
- Published version
Journal
Bulletin of Mathematical BiologyISSN
0092-8240Publisher
SpringerExternal DOI
Issue
10Volume
77Page range
1909-1933Department affiliated with
- Mathematics Publications
Full text available
- Yes
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2015-09-29First Open Access (FOA) Date
2015-09-29First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date
2015-09-29Usage metrics
Categories
No categories selectedKeywords
Licence
Exports
RefWorks
BibTeX
Ref. manager
Endnote
DataCite
NLM
DC