Testing the rationality of DOE's energy price forecasts under asymmetric loss preferences

Mamatzakis, E and Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, A (2014) Testing the rationality of DOE's energy price forecasts under asymmetric loss preferences. Energy Policy, 68. pp. 567-575. ISSN 0301-4215

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Abstract

This paper examines the rationality of the price forecasts for energy commodities of the United States Department of Energy's (DOE), departing from the common assumption in the literature that DOE's forecasts are based on a symmetric underlying loss function with respect to positive vs. negative forecast errors. Instead, we opt for the methodology of Elliott et al. (2005) that allows testing the joint hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function and rationality and reveals the underlying preferences of the forecaster. Results indicate the existence of asymmetries in the shape of the loss function for most energy categories with preferences leaning towards optimism. Moreover, we also examine whether there is a structural break in those preferences over the examined period, 1997 – 2012

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Business and Management
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Depositing User: Emmanuel Mamatzakis
Date Deposited: 25 Aug 2015 11:56
Last Modified: 08 Mar 2017 06:12
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/56249

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