The accuracy of earnings forecasts in IPO prospectuses on the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange

Jelic, Ranko, Saadouni, Brahim and Briston, Richard (1998) The accuracy of earnings forecasts in IPO prospectuses on the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange. Accounting and Business Research, 29 (1). pp. 57-72. ISSN 0001-4788

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Abstract

This paper examines the accuracy of earnings forecasts made by managers of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs) during the period 1984-1995. It is a mandatory requirement for Malaysian IPOs to furnish earnings forecasts together with the opinions thereon of the auditors and the lead underwriter in their prospectuses. Their accuracy is measured by forecast errors, absolute forecast errors, squared forecast errors and standardised forecast errors. The results suggest that, on average, managers under-forecast earnings by 33.37%. A comparison with the naive no change model in earnings suggests that 96 Out of 122 companies outperform this model. A number of company specific characteristics (size, age, forecast interval, gearing, proportion of shares retained by owners, auditor reputation and industry) are tested. The results reveal that both the age and industry classification of the company are statistically significant, and that management earnings forecasts are particularly inaccurate where firms experience a decline in earnings.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Business and Management
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4001 Finance management. Business finance. Corporation finance
Depositing User: Ranko Jelic
Date Deposited: 15 Dec 2014 12:43
Last Modified: 15 Dec 2014 12:43
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/51694
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