Predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease in HIV-infected patients: the data collection on adverse effects of anti-HIV drugs study

Friis-Møller, Nina, Thiébaut, Rodolphe, Reiss, Peter, Weber, Rainer, Monforte, Antonella D'Arminio, De Wit, Stephane, El-Sadr, Wafaa, Fontas, Eric, Worm, Signe, Kirk, Ole, Phillips, Andrew, Sabin, Caroline A, Lundgren, Jens D, Law, Matthew G, The DAD Study Group, and Fisher, Martin (2010) Predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease in HIV-infected patients: the data collection on adverse effects of anti-HIV drugs study. European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation, 17 (5). pp. 491-501. ISSN 1741-8267

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Abstract

AIMS

HIV-infected patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy may experience metabolic complications, potentially increasing their risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Furthermore, exposures to some antiretroviral drugs seem to be independently associated with increased CVD risk. We aimed to develop cardiovascular risk-assessment models tailored to HIV-infected patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospective multinational cohort study. The data set included 22,625 HIV-infected patients from 20 countries in Europe and Australia who were free of CVD at entry into the Data collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs Study. Using cross-validation methods, separate models were developed to predict the risk of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, and a composite CVD endpoint. Model performance was compared with the Framingham score. The models included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, family history of CVD, diabetes, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and indinavir, lopinavir/r and abacavir exposure. The models performed well with area under the receiver operator curve statistics of 0.783 (range 0.642-0.820) for myocardial infarction, 0.776 (0.670-0.818) for coronary heart disease and 0.769 (0.695-0.824) for CVD. The models estimated more accurately the outcomes in the subgroups than the Framingham score.

CONCLUSION

Risk equations developed from a population of HIV-infected patients, incorporating routinely collected cardiovascular risk parameters and exposure to individual antiretroviral therapy drugs, might be more useful in estimating CVD risks in HIV-infected persons than conventional risk prediction models.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Martin Fisher is not a named author of this article but is a member of the DAD Study Group.
Schools and Departments: Brighton and Sussex Medical School > Brighton and Sussex Medical School
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine > RA0643 Communicable diseases and public health > RA0644 Individual diseases or groups of diseases, A-Z > RA0644.A25 AIDS. HIV infections
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Depositing User: Ellen Thomas
Date Deposited: 07 Apr 2014 14:46
Last Modified: 07 Apr 2014 14:46
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/47558
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