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Forecasting tourist arrivals in Greece and the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the countries of tourists’ origin
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posted on 2023-06-08, 15:07 authored by Dimitrios Gounopoulos, Dimitris Petmezas, Daniel SantamariaThis paper generates short-term forecasts on tourist arrivals in Greece and performs impulse response analysis to measure the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the origin country on future tourism demand. We find the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model outperforms exponential smoothing models in forecasting the direction of one year out of sample forecasts. However, this does not translate into point forecasting accuracy. Impulse response analysis on the impact of unemployment and tourists’ cost of living shocks shows that the source of downside risk to future tourism numbers is limited in scope, magnitude, and duration. Shocks to consumer confidence from the origin countries have no impact on future tourism demand. Our results offer important insights and implications for policymakers and tourist operators.
History
Publication status
- Published
Journal
Annals of Tourism ResearchISSN
0160-7383Publisher
ElsevierExternal DOI
Issue
2Volume
39Page range
641-666Department affiliated with
- Economics Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2013-09-09Usage metrics
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