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Forecasting tourist arrivals in Greece and the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the countries of tourists’ origin

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 15:07 authored by Dimitrios Gounopoulos, Dimitris Petmezas, Daniel Santamaria
This paper generates short-term forecasts on tourist arrivals in Greece and performs impulse response analysis to measure the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the origin country on future tourism demand. We find the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model outperforms exponential smoothing models in forecasting the direction of one year out of sample forecasts. However, this does not translate into point forecasting accuracy. Impulse response analysis on the impact of unemployment and tourists’ cost of living shocks shows that the source of downside risk to future tourism numbers is limited in scope, magnitude, and duration. Shocks to consumer confidence from the origin countries have no impact on future tourism demand. Our results offer important insights and implications for policymakers and tourist operators.

History

Publication status

  • Published

Journal

Annals of Tourism Research

ISSN

0160-7383

Publisher

Elsevier

Issue

2

Volume

39

Page range

641-666

Department affiliated with

  • Economics Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2013-09-09

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