Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

Tol, Richard S J (2013) Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions. Climatic Change, 117 (4). pp. 961-970. ISSN 0165-0009

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Subjects: A General Works
Depositing User: Richard Tol
Date Deposited: 15 Mar 2013 07:45
Last Modified: 15 Mar 2013 07:48
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/44044
📧 Request an update