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Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

journal contribution
posted on 2023-06-08, 14:36 authored by Richard TolRichard Tol
The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios.

History

Publication status

  • Published

Journal

Climatic Change

ISSN

0165-0009

Publisher

Springer Verlag

Issue

4

Volume

117

Page range

961-970

Department affiliated with

  • Economics Publications

Full text available

  • No

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2013-03-15

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