The uncertainty about the total economic impact of climate change

Tol, Richard S J (2012) The uncertainty about the total economic impact of climate change. Environmental and Resource Economics, 53 (1). pp. 97-116. ISSN 0924-6460

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Abstract

This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3°C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3°C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7°C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Subjects: A General Works
Depositing User: Richard Tol
Date Deposited: 15 Mar 2013 08:23
Last Modified: 15 Mar 2013 08:23
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/44036
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