Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st Century

Pereira, Henrique M, Leadley, Paul W, Proença, Vânia, Alkemade, Rob, Scharlemann, Jörn P W, Fernandez-Manjarres, Juan F, Araujo, Miguel B, Balvanera, Patricia, Biggs, Reinette, Cheung, William W L, Chini, Louise, Cooper, H David, Gilman, Eric L, Guenette, Sylvie, Hurtt, George C, Huntington, Henry P, Mace, Georgina M, Oberdorff, Thierry, Revenga, Carmen, Rodrigues, Patrícia, Scholes, Robert J, Sumaila, Ussif Rashid and Walpole, Matt (2010) Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st Century. Science, 330 (6010). pp. 1496-1501. ISSN 0036-8075

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Abstract

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Life Sciences > Evolution, Behaviour and Environment
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences > GE170 Environmental policy
Q Science > QH Natural history > QH0301 Biology > QH0540 Ecology
Depositing User: Jorn Scharlemann
Date Deposited: 15 Nov 2012 08:28
Last Modified: 13 Mar 2017 12:23
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/42533

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