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Multidecadal variability in hydro-climate of Okavango river system, southwest Africa, in the past and under future climate

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posted on 2023-06-08, 12:51 authored by P Wolski, Martin ToddMartin Todd, M A Murray-Hudson, M Tadross
The focus of this paper is to understand the multi-decadal oscillatory component of variability in the Okavango River system, in southwestern Africa, and its potential evolution through the 21st century under climate change scenarios. Statistical analyses and hydrological modelling are used to show that the observed multi-decadal wet and dry phases in the Okavango River and Delta result from multi-decadal oscillations in rainfall, which are likely to be related to processes of internal variability in the climate system, rather than external natural or anthropogenic forcing. Analyses of changes in this aspect of variability under projected climate change scenarios are based on data from a multi-model ensemble of 19 General Circulation Models, which are used to drive hydrological models of the Okavango River and Delta. Projections for the 21st century indicate a progressive shift towards drier conditions attributed to the influence of increasing temperatures on water balance. It is, however, highly likely that multi-decadal oscillations, possibly of similar magnitude to that of 20th century, will be superimposed on the overall trend. These may periodically offset or amplify the mean drying trend. This effect should be accounted for in water and catchment management and climate change adaptation strategies.

History

Publication status

  • Published

File Version

  • Accepted version

Journal

Journal of Hydrology

ISSN

0022-1694

Publisher

Elsevier

Volume

475

Page range

294-305

Department affiliated with

  • Geography Publications

Full text available

  • Yes

Peer reviewed?

  • Yes

Legacy Posted Date

2013-03-14

First Open Access (FOA) Date

2013-03-14

First Compliant Deposit (FCD) Date

2012-10-26

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