The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis

Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed (2012) The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis. Doctoral thesis (DPhil), University of Sussex.

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Abstract

This thesis examines the potential impacts of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). It provides a quantitative assessment of the prospective implications for welfare, output and trade structures, resource allocation, prices and fiscal revenue.
The thesis undertakes country- and sector-specific analyses using the multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) GLOBE model. The model is calibrated to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database- version 7 for 2004.
Different scenarios are implemented in order to simulate the alternative EU-SADC EPA scenarios in addition to their WTO-compatible alternatives.
The thesis aims to contribute novel insights to the ongoing debate on the EU-SADC EPAs. It provides detailed country- and sector-specific impact projections within an internally consistent modelling framework. Furthermore, it contemplates the other WTO-compatible arrangements for SADC-EU trade in the case of not signing final EPAs.
The simulation results inform answers for several research questions, as follows. Who gains and who loses from the EU-SADC EPAs? Do the agreements help SADC to effectively integrate into the world economy? What type of structural change might SADC experience under the EU-SADC EPA scenarios? How significant are potential adjustment costs for the SADC members likely to be? Are the WTO-compatible alternatives preferable for SADC members compared to the EU-SADC EPAs scenario? The simulation results suggest that a comprehensive EPA scenario is welfare-improving for many SADC members. The agreements, however, do not serve as a stumbling block towards more integration for SADC members into the world markets. Overall, SADC production structures become more concentrated in export-oriented sectors. These structural changes are accompanied by a high degree of adjustment in factor markets and substantial fiscal losses. A comprehensive EPA scenario is the best option vis-à-vis the WTO-compatible alternatives for SADC non-LDCs, whereas the results for SADC LDCs are mixed.

Item Type: Thesis (Doctoral)
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe) > JN0030 European Union. European Community. European communities
J Political Science > JQ Political institutions and public administration (Asia, Africa, Australia, Pacific Area, etc.) > JQ1870 Africa
Depositing User: Library Cataloguing
Date Deposited: 30 Mar 2012 06:52
Last Modified: 25 Aug 2015 13:31
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/38615

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