Climate change, the enhanced greenhouse effect and the influence of the sun: A statistical analysis

Tol, Richard S J and Vellinga, Pier (1998) Climate change, the enhanced greenhouse effect and the influence of the sun: A statistical analysis. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 61 (1-2). pp. 1-7. ISSN 0177-798X

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Abstract

Changes in solar activity are regularly forwarded as an hypothesis to explain the observed global warming over the last century. The support of such claims is largely statistical, as knowledge of the physical relationships is limited. The statistical evidence is revisited. Changing solar activity is a statistically plausible hypothesis for the observed warming, if short-term natural variability is the only alternative explanation. Compared to the enhanced greenhouse effect, the solar hypothesis looses a substantial part of its plausibility. Reversely, the size and significance of the estimated impact of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the global mean temperature is hardly affected by solar activity.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
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Depositing User: Richard Tol
Date Deposited: 23 Apr 2012 09:47
Last Modified: 30 Nov 2012 17:12
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/38391
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