A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism

Berrittella, Maria, Bigano, Andrea, Roson, Roberto and Tol, Richard S J (2006) A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism. Tourism Management, 27 (5). pp. 913-924. ISSN 0261-5177

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Abstract

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second set reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis highlights that variations in tourist flows will affect regional economies in a way that is directly related to the sign and magnitude of flow variations. At a global scale, climate change will ultimately lead to a welfare loss, unevenly spread across regions. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GV Recreation. Leisure
H Social Sciences > HB Economic theory. Demography
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Depositing User: Richard Tol
Date Deposited: 17 Apr 2012 09:46
Last Modified: 30 Nov 2012 17:12
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/38331
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