Economic impacts on key Barents Sea fisheries arising from changes in the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Link, P Michael and Tol, Richard S J (2009) Economic impacts on key Barents Sea fisheries arising from changes in the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Global Environmental Change, 19 (4). pp. 422-433. ISSN 0959-3780

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Abstract

A bioeconomic model of key fisheries of the Barents Sea is run with scenarios generated by an earth system model of intermediate complexity to assess how the Barents Sea fisheries of cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) are affected by changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) arising from anthropogenic climate change. Changes in hydrographic conditions have an impact on recruitment success and survival rates, which constitute a lasting effect on the stocks. The economic development of the fisheries is determined for the 21st century, considering a purely stock size based and a coupled stock size-hydrography based harvesting strategy. Results show that a substantial weakening of the THC leads to impaired cod stock development, causing the associated fishery to become unprofitable in the long run. Simultaneous improvements in capelin stock development help the capelin fishery, but are insufficient to offset the losses incurred by the cod fishery. A comparison of harvest strategies reveals that in times of high variability in stock development, coupled stock size-hydrography based management leads to more stable economic results of these fisheries than the stock size based fishing strategy.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
H Social Sciences > HB Economic theory. Demography
Q Science > QL Zoology > QL0001 General Including geographical distribution
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Richard Tol
Date Deposited: 19 Apr 2012 13:41
Last Modified: 30 Nov 2012 17:11
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/38265
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