Scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions from aviation

Mayor, Karen and Tol, Richard S J (2010) Scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions from aviation. Global Environmental Change, 20 (1). pp. 65-73. ISSN 0959-3780

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Abstract

We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to project tourist numbers and emissions from international tourism out to 2100. We find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows substantially. Not only do people take more trips but these also increase in length. We find that the growth in tourism is mainly fuelled by an increase in trips from Asian countries. Emissions follow this growth pattern until the middle of the century when emissions start to fall due to improvements in fuel efficiency. Projected emissions are also presented for the four SRES scenarios and maintain the same growth pattern but the levels of emissions differ substantially. We find that the projections are sensitive to the period to which the model is calibrated, the assumed rate of improvement in fuel efficiency and the imposed climate policy scenario.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
H Social Sciences > HB Economic theory. Demography
H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and communications > HE9761 Air transportation. Airlines
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Depositing User: Richard Tol
Date Deposited: 18 Apr 2012 08:22
Last Modified: 30 Nov 2012 17:11
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/38258
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