Civil war, climate change, and development: A scenario study for sub-Saharan Africa

Devitt, Conor and Tol, Richard S J (2012) Civil war, climate change, and development: A scenario study for sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 49 (1). pp. 129-145. ISSN 0022-3433

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Abstract

This article presents a model of development, civil war and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war and civil war in the neighbouring countries reduce economic growth. The model has two potential poverty traps – one is climate-change-induced and one is civil-war-induced – and the two poverty traps may reinforce one another. The model is calibrated to sub-Saharan Africa and a double Monte Carlo analysis is conducted in order to account for both parameter uncertainty and stochasticity. Although the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) is used as the baseline, thus assuming rapid economic growth in Africa and convergence of African living standards to the rest of the world, the impacts of civil war and climate change (ignored in SRES) are sufficiently strong to keep a number of countries in Africa in deep poverty with a high probability.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > Economics
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
H Social Sciences > HB Economic theory. Demography
J Political Science > JZ International relations > JZ6385 The armed conflict. War and order
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Depositing User: Richard Tol
Date Deposited: 24 Apr 2012 15:04
Last Modified: 30 Nov 2012 17:11
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/36138
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