Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as 'learning machines'

Berkhout, Frans, Hertin, Julia and Jordan, Andrew (2002) Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as 'learning machines'. Global Environmental Change, 12. pp. 83-95. ISSN 0959-3780

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Abstract

Climate impact assessment needs to take account of two interrelated processes: socio-economic change and climate change. To date, future change in socio-economic systems has not been sufficiently integrated with an analysis of climate change impacts. Participative and synthetic scenario approaches offer a means for dealing with critical issues of indeterminacy, innovation, reflexivity and framing in analysing change in socio-economic systems, paving the way for a coherent way of handling of socio-economic futures in impact assessment. We argue that scenarios represent heuristic tools that encourage social learning in climate impact assessment. The advantages and disadvantages of a scenario-based approach are explored using examples from regional climate impact assessment in the UK.

Item Type: Article
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics > SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit
Depositing User: EPrints Services
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2012 20:43
Last Modified: 31 Jul 2013 13:59
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/27722
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