Forecasting mortality, different approaches for different causes of deaths? The cases of lung cancer, influenza, pneumonia, and bronchitis, and motor vehicle accidents

Di Cesare, Mariachiara and Murphy, Michael (2009) Forecasting mortality, different approaches for different causes of deaths? The cases of lung cancer, influenza, pneumonia, and bronchitis, and motor vehicle accidents. In: Joining forces on mortality and longevity. A multidisciplinary conference, 21-22 October, 2009, Royal College of Physicians, Edinburgh.

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

Most of the methods of mortality forecasting have been assessed using performance on overall mortality, and few studies address the issue of identifying the appropriate forecasting models for specific causes of death. This study analyses trends and forecasts mortality rates for three major causes of death - lung cancer, influenza-pneumonia-bronchitis, and motor vehicle accidents - using Lee-Carter, Booth-Maindonald-Smith, Age-Period-Cohort, and Bayesian models to assess how far different causes of death need different forecasting methods. Using data from the Twentieth and Twenty-First Century Mortality databases for England and Wales, results show major differences among the different forecasting techniques. In particular, when linearity is the main driver of past trends, Lee-Carter-based approaches are preferred due to their straightforward assumptions and limited need for subjective judgment. When a clear cohort pattern is detectable, such as with lung cancer, the Age-Period-Cohort model shows the best outcome. When complete and reliable historical trends are available the Bayesian model does not produce better results than the other models.

This paper was presented to the Joining forces on mortality and longevity conference in Edinburgh in October 2009.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Schools and Departments: School of Education and Social Work > Education
Depositing User: Mariachiara DiCesare
Date Deposited: 06 Feb 2012 19:39
Last Modified: 06 Jun 2012 09:47
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/21679
📧 Request an update