File(s) not publicly available
Forecasting mortality, different approaches for different causes of deaths? The cases of lung cancer, influenza, pneumonia, and bronchitis, and motor vehicle accidents
presentation
posted on 2023-06-07, 23:40 authored by Mariachiara Di Cesare, Michael MurphyMost of the methods of mortality forecasting have been assessed using performance on overall mortality, and few studies address the issue of identifying the appropriate forecasting models for specific causes of death. This study analyses trends and forecasts mortality rates for three major causes of death - lung cancer, influenza-pneumonia-bronchitis, and motor vehicle accidents - using Lee-Carter, Booth-Maindonald-Smith, Age-Period-Cohort, and Bayesian models to assess how far different causes of death need different forecasting methods. Using data from the Twentieth and Twenty-First Century Mortality databases for England and Wales, results show major differences among the different forecasting techniques. In particular, when linearity is the main driver of past trends, Lee-Carter-based approaches are preferred due to their straightforward assumptions and limited need for subjective judgment. When a clear cohort pattern is detectable, such as with lung cancer, the Age-Period-Cohort model shows the best outcome. When complete and reliable historical trends are available the Bayesian model does not produce better results than the other models. This paper was presented to the Joining forces on mortality and longevity conference in Edinburgh in October 2009.
History
Publication status
- Published
Page range
185-211Presentation Type
- paper
Event name
Joining forces on mortality and longevity. A multidisciplinary conferenceEvent location
Royal College of Physicians, EdinburghEvent type
conferenceEvent date
21-22 October, 2009Department affiliated with
- Education Publications
Full text available
- No
Peer reviewed?
- Yes
Legacy Posted Date
2012-02-06Usage metrics
Categories
No categories selectedKeywords
Licence
Exports
RefWorks
BibTeX
Ref. manager
Endnote
DataCite
NLM
DC