The hazard of being an English football league manager: empirical estimates for three recent league seasons

Reilly, Barry, Bachan, Ray and Witt, Robert (2008) The hazard of being an English football league manager: empirical estimates for three recent league seasons. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 59 (7). pp. 884-891. ISSN 0160-5682

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Abstract

This paper uses data drawn from the English Football League to model separate hazard rates for club managers for the 2001/2, 2002/3 and 2003/4 seasons. On average over the three seasons, approximately one-third of managers involuntarily exited employment status with their club. We model the hazard using a standard logistic model exploiting information on the spell at risk rather than the individual. The role of neglected heterogeneity is also examined using random and fixed effects logistic models within a discrete-time setting. League position at the start of the spell at risk is found to be the most important determinant of a manager’s involuntary exit. A variety of individual specific human capital and other covariates are found to be unimportant in determining the hazard and no role for unobservable heterogeneity as captured by random effects is detected.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: logistic regression, hazard rate, football
Schools and Departments: School of Business, Management and Economics
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic history and conditions
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Depositing User: Chris Keene
Date Deposited: 27 Oct 2008
Last Modified: 13 Mar 2017 12:08
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/1480
Google Scholar:3 Citations

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