Model selection as a science driver for dark energy surveys

Mukherjee, P., Parkinson, D., Corasaniti, P. S., Liddle, A. R. and Kunz, M. (2006) Model selection as a science driver for dark energy surveys. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 369 (4). pp. 1725-1734. ISSN 0035-8711

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Abstract

A key science goal of upcoming dark energy surveys is to seek time evolution of the dark energy. This problem is one of model selection, where the aim is to differentiate between cosmological models with different numbers of parameters. However, the power of these surveys is traditionally assessed by estimating their ability to constrain parameters, which is a different statistical problem. In this paper we use Bayesian model selection techniques, specifically forecasting of the Bayes factors, to compare the abilities of different proposed surveys in discovering dark energy evolution. We consider six experiments — supernova luminosity measurements by the Supernova Legacy Survey, SNAP, JEDI, and ALPACA, and baryon acoustic oscillation measurements by WFMOS and JEDI — and use Bayes factor plots to compare their statistical constraining power. The concept of Bayes factor forecasting has much broader applicability than dark energy surveys.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com
Schools and Departments: School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences > Physics and Astronomy
Subjects: Q Science > QB Astronomy
Depositing User: SRO Admin
Date Deposited: 15 Jun 2007
Last Modified: 13 Mar 2017 20:51
URI: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/1123
Google Scholar:44 Citations

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